Cruisin Down the Freeway With the Hot, Hot Suns

Tonight the Washington Wizards play host to one of the hottest teams in the league. The Phoenix Suns (15-4) come into Verizon Center riding a four-game win streak and having won 12 of their last 14. Meanwhile, the Wizards (9-9) have won their last two, most recently a 105-86 blowout against Cleveland on Wednesday in D.C.

Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and company will provide a much tougher test for a team that is starting to develop some consistency on the defensive end. That they've held four of their last five opponents below the century mark shows how far they've come after being one of the league's worst defensive teams a season ago. Tonight they'll likely be exposed for how far they have yet to go before they can be considered a legitimately talented defensive group. No one on Washington's roster can contain a point guard with Nash's penetration and passing ability. No one on the Wiz can handle a load like Stoudamire on the block. And no one on the team is quick enough to keep the human form of Gumby, aka the Matrix, off the boards and away from the rim.

Prediction

Don't bother looking for much defense at all in this one. The Suns gave up 123 to the Raptors in their last game and still won by 13. For the Wizards to keep pace, they'll need another 25+ point showing from Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, a double-double from Brendan Haywood and lots of scoring off the bench. With the way they've played recently, a win certainly isn't out of the question for Washington. They'll just need to play a near-perfect game to pull off the upset. That said, I like the West's best offensive team by 12.

-- The Tar Heel

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Wizards Get A Measure of Revenge...Sort Of...

The Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland Cavaliers limped into the district last night without three of the role players who helped them to 2007 NBA Finals and riding a four-game losing streak. Ex-Wizard Larry Hughes, wily sharpshooter Donyell Marshall and the recently re-signed Anderson Varejao (who the Cavs only opened up their wallet for to prevent him from going to the Bobcats) were all out of the lineup as Washington hosted their newest rivals for the first time since last April's playoff series. Oh yeah...and that LeBron James character was in street clothes too.

But with the bitter taste of that first round trouncing still lingering, the Wizards (9-9) showed no mercy to their shorthanded opponents. Caron Butler and company used a 31-point second quarter and a dominant performance on the boards to chase the reeling Cavs (9-11) out of Verizon Center after a 105-86 victory.

Imagine that! A team that's favored to win a game against a shorthanded opponent actually following through on it. Hey Joey G., you seeing this?

Butler, who has been nothing short of MVP-like this season, posted another statistical gem scoring a game-high 27 points on 13-of-23 from the field with seven boards, four steals, two assists and a block. He's now averaging 23.2 points (10th most in the NBA), 6.7 boards, 3.1 dishes and 2.1 steals (9th) and 40.3 minutes (4th) per contest. And it's not taking Butler tons of shots to reach his totals either. At 53 percent, he's 17th in the league in shooting percentage (only two players ahead of him are not centers of power forwards who get half of their buckets on dunks) and for a guy who had no outside shot before this season, how good does 51 percent (4th in the league) sound? That's efficiency, a word the run and gun Wizards teams of the past few years never learned.

It's not only Caron who's getting it done either. Antawn Jamison is averaging a double-double (21.6 & 10.3), Antonio Daniels is running the offense smoothly, Brendan Haywood is simply giddy in his fortified starting role - averaging career highs in points (9.9) and boards (7.9) - and that Nick Young kid is really starting to wow people with his quick scoring ability from anywhere on the floor. Throw in the constantly-improving Andray Blatche, a reliable big man in Darius Songaila, a perimeter defender in DeShawn Stevenson, and role players off the bench like Dominic McGuire and Roger Mason Jr. and you've got a team that can win on any given night in the lackluster East. More importantly, you've got a team that is not only surviving, but is really starting to figure out how to get it done without it's marquee star. The belief is if the Wiz can hover around .500 until Gilbert Arenas returns to the lineup in three months, they'll make the playoffs. The way this team has played in it's last two games combined with how weak the East looks (yet again) after you get past Boston, Orlando and Detroit, Washington could conceivably be fourth in the conference when Agent Zero comes back.

There's no doubt the Wizards are a better team with their star on the floor, but in his absence, Butler and Jamison have delivered, Haywood has finally grown up and the Wizards are holding strong. Inconsistency has still plagued them at times, but look for this next stretch of home games - one that features a home match-up with Phoenix, followed by against conference bottom-feeders Atlanta (7-10), Indiana(9-10), Charlotte (6-11), Chicago (what? yeah, they're 5-11) and two each against Miami (4-13) and New Jersey (9-10) - to dictate the way this season will go. If they beat the teams they should beat - i.e. all of these duds - and take care of their home floor, the Wiz are set. Now they just have to do what they're supposed to do...or be who we think they are.

Noteworthy

• No one likes a guy who plays for stats. A few years ago Ricky Davis, then playing for the Cavs when they used to wear those light blue unis, notoriously grabbed a rebound in the waning moments of a Cleveland loss and promptly tossed it back off the backboard himself in order to tally a triple-double. Classy. Last night, Brendan Haywood clearly knew he had been sitting on nine boards for the last few minutes of the game. With the final margin already lit on the scoreboard, a Cleveland player drove to the basket for a lay-in. Brendan contested the shot and snatched the rebound out of the air faster than Steven A. Smith reaching for a cheese doodle. The buzzer sounded and Haywood sprinted to the locker room with a massive smile across his face. Yeah, double-doubles are inconsequential in the scheme of things, but you gotta love a guy who has finally become the aggressive force in the paint he was drafted to be actually playing like a 7-footer.
  

• The Wizards have been getting by without adding a body to their bench for over a month now. With Arenas, Etan Thomas and Oleksiy Pecherov still out, their 10-man roster barely gives them enough players to scrimmage in practice. One injury and Eddie Jordan is going to be suiting up in the layup line. Team president Ernie Grunfield has been reluctant to go over the luxury tax to give the team a little more depth and doesn't look like he'll budge on that unless an impact player becomes readily available. So for now, the Wiz will keep knocking on wood, but maybe it's time for Eddie to start getting back into shape. Never know when they might need him.

-- The Tar Heel

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Week 14: Redskins vs. Bears

I'm getting very tired of this Redskins team. I love our players, but when I see the amount of talent and time they are wasting week in and week out, it pisses me off. From the coaching staff, right down to the players they seem content to mail in their games, simply go through the motions. I think they expect their abilities to come through and save them when game time rolls around, forgetting that in the NFL every player has the raw talent to be there.
There is no fire in this team, there is no will to succeed, no intensity to carry them through close games. Jason Campbell is praised for his poise, but when does that kind of poise merely reflect an inner complacency? The Redskins have lost almost every single close game they have played this year and that has been the difference in their season.

There is no way they should have lost last week to a Buffalo team who ranks 30th in the league on defense and 29th on offense. Where is the passion? Where is that inner determination to beat down their opponent on every play? The best comparable example of the Redskins lack of desire is their game against the Patriots. Where the Skins laid down and timidly played to a 52-7 loss, a weaker but more empowered Ravens team actually showed up to play and was one or two plays away from defeating the so-called unbeatable New England team.

Where is the Redskins' fortitude? It's not enough in this league to deserve to win, you have to earn it, and at 5-7 this Redskins team hasn't done anything to earn anyone's respect. The Bears are drastically worse statistically, yet they have an equal 5-7 record and have capitalized on the few opportunities they have been given this season. Not to mention they have Devin Hester, a player so explosive the Redskins will need to take the time and game plan for. But this is something I don't think they've had the time or experience to do.

This Bears defense is not the vaunted or feared group of years past and Clinton Portis has historically showed that he can run on them. They also gave up over 150 yards and a TD last week to the Giants' Derrick Ward, so the Redskins could have success scoring this way on Thursday. Running the ball is something they have been unable to do in their four game losing streak and would give an all-around boost to the offense, but simply gaining yards hasn’t necessarily translated into points this year for the Redskins and I don't see that changing on Thursday.

This Skins team that has shown at multiple junctures this year that they can lose close games or fail to win the game when the ball is in their hands. It'll be another close one against the Bears but the Skins failure to put the ball in the end zone will again hurt their chances against the superior special teams play of the Bears.

Redskins 20, Bears 24

-The Hokie
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Nationals Deal for Mets' Milledge

In a recent deal the Washington Nationals sent catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church to the Mets for outfielder Lastings Milledge. In a statement, General Manager Bowden said they expect Milledge to develop into a middle of the order hitter and a good defensive outfielder. Milledge will be given the opportunity to compete for the starting spot in center but can and could play either corner spot as well. Bowden also said that "To get a young player of the potential that Lastings Milledge has, you have to pay a price, and we paid a steep price."

Now, while I fully support this move and commend the Nationals for cutting ties to underachieving and struggling players, I certainly don't think the Nats paid a steep price. As a fan who wants to see this team develop their own identity, I was afraid that the organization would cling to non-essential personnel out of loyalty to the past. But, in the past two seasons they have shown they are willing to do what is necessary in order to make the club better. Both Schneider and Church had used up their opportunities in Washington and it was important to reshuffle the deck and get a player like Milledge in return. A 22-year-old prospect, he still has the potential to develop into a power hitter and excellent all-around ballplayer.

Schneider, who is a great defensive catcher, has regressed the past two years offensively. His dead weight was carried when he exhibited a bit of power and showed signs of making more contact, but backward offensive steps made him obsolete towards the end of the 2007 season and coincided with the emergence of Jesus Flores. Flores will be given his opportunity to take the vacant starting catching job, but you should still look for the Nationals to pursue another catching option as Flores is still young and unproven.

Church has also been a disappointment as a National and many have looked towards his lackadaisical nature and poor work ethic as the contributing factor. As both a fielder and hitter, Church appeared to hit a wall and never took that next step that was expected to make him into a capable everyday player.

With the recent addition of Milledge and the previous addition of Elijah Dukes from the Tampa Bay Rays, it looks like the Nationals are content with their outfield potential for the 2008 season. Both players will compete for center and right field alongside Austin Kearns (although Kearns is on the trading block to interested teams). The final spot will belong to Wily Mo Pena, who I have criticized before, but as pure talent and physical attributes are concerned, this group is definitely stronger than the starting lineup of 2007 and that’s what is most important to take away from the moves made so far this winter.

The Nationals are attempting to grow their own talent and have really put the responsibility to win on Manny Acta's shoulders. Can he and his coaching staff turn these guys into professional ball players? Can they not only coach but teach them how to play, how to win and how to get better? I like the potential chemistry they are trying to assemble and while it's funny to think about big league players getting better or becoming more than they already are, it's imperative for every player to continue to grow and take positive steps.

The Nationals still need to add starting pitching to their roster and the Twins have been mentioned as potential suitors for Kearns and Felipe Lopez. In return the Nationals will expect a young but ready prospect and I suspect Kearns and Lopez will again be paired for a trade, this time out of Washington. With everything that has happened so far this winter, the 2008 Nationals could surprise some people and their success will be directly related to how fast their young talent develops. 2008 will be a different look than we've grown accustomed to, but that's a good thing.

- The Hokie
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Posts for the Off Days

Well Caps fans, the team finally has some time off. Five days total in fact, which means there probably won't be a ton of news coming out of the Caps camp in the coming days. Given this, I thought now would be an appropriate time to post several things I'd been working on:

Capitals
Stop the Panic! Ovechkin isn't going anywhere
Capitals Advertising Leaves a Lot to be Desired

NHL
Economics + Hockey = More Fights, Hold the Scoring Please

Capitals Videos
Caps Video Clips Post

-DMG
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Capitals Unable to Overcome Bad Luck; Worse Refs

Capitals 3, Hurricanes 4

I wrote on Friday that the Capitals had all too often been the victims of bad luck this year. It appears that's still the case.

When an opposing player misses the net, but hits someone else on his team in chest with the puck, which then falls at his feet for a tap in goal, you're dealing with some crap luck.

When you have an important late-period goal washed out because it failed to beat the buzzer by two tenths of a second, you're dealing with some crap luck.

When the other team scores from behind the goal line, by throwing the puck off your netminder and your best player's stick, you're dealing with some crap luck.

When the other team slashes your second-best offensive player in the offensive zone badly enough that he has to be helped off the ice with 15 seconds left and the result is a faceoff down near your goal and no penalty call you're dealing with some crap luck (and crap referees). Oh, by the way, Donald, next time the Caps play the 'Canes, take the two minute minor and ten minute misconduct and beat down Dennis Seidenberg.

When you lose a powerplay because your player (Mike Green) high-sticks the opposition (Chad LaRose after being hooked and is sent to the box you're dealing with some crap luck (and crap referees). That play should have resulted in a 5-on-3 for the Capitals since LaRose hooked Green and touched the puck before Green high-sticked LaRose. Instead 4-on-4 and an abbreviated 'Canes powerplay. Crap luck.

I have no idea what the Capitals have done to anger the hockey gods. Maybe it's that the Capitals don't have enough Canadians on the team (eight by my count), maybe the hockey gods are Japanese and hate their homeland's reputation being sullied by "Nanking", or perhaps it's just that Steve Stamkos is destined to be a Capital.

The Capitals still need to go on a run to get themselves back into the playoff picture and I still think they can do it, and will look for them to do so after Boudreau gets his five days off to work with the team without the pressures of a game. Picking up two against an inferior Panthers team tomorrow night is essential though.

I'm wondering if it would be worth it to start a section called "Laughlin's Laffers" where each game I'd chronicle the most absurd thing said by Craig Laughlin in the previous game's telecast. If I had such a section, tonight's would have been "I thought fans in Greensville were excited for hockey!" when he and Joe B. were discussing the move of the Hartford Whalers to Carolina. First of all, it's Greensboro, not Greensville. Secondly, the 'Canes played there for two seasons, in which they drew 9,086 and 8,188 fans per game.

Quick Hits

• After Ovechkin's early goal Laughlin noted "that's the way you quiet a crowd". Good point. I'm sure those 628 people in their seats at the game's start were making a hell of a lot of noise and really intimating the Capitals. Or maybe it was that the Calgary-esque "Sea of Red" from all the empty seats around the arena.
• What's the deal with the Hurricanes sounding the horn when an opposing team has a goal waived off?
  
• Nice first period for Laing. He skated 5:02, and had three blocked shots. Apparently he told Joe B. before the game all he wanted to do was be in the right position and grind it out. I believe that's called "knowing your role".
• From his gait I thought it looked obvious that Alexander Semin was in pain when he was skating. From the rest of his play it's obvious his hands aren't as deft as he's used to and he's still not used to playing at NHL game pace. That said I thought he was still quite effective at getting open in the offensive zone and making the Carolina defense either make plays or take penalties.
  
• Comcast briefly showed Donald Brashear running around the ice in his spandex shorts/jock and a windbreaker and, believe it or, it indicated to me part of the reason he's not a great hockey player: his legs didn't look particularly strong. If you notice, a lot of elite players in the NHL don't have massive upper bodies, but have really strong legs (Ovechkin is one of them). Makes sense given that the most important part of any players game is skating ability.
• Did you see Kolzig and LaRose nod to each other they were okay after their collision on the penalty shot and LaRose give Kolzig a little tap on the pads? It's stuff like that that makes me think hockey is the classiest sport at the pro level. Think about it - you never see NFL linemen ask the quarterback is he's okay after a sack (they're generally too busy prancing around).
• It wouldn't shock me to see Ovechkin one day pull a Bill Gramatica and hurt himself celebrating.

-DMG
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Are the Capitals Cursed?

Per Tarik at Caps Insider, the Capitals are again facing injuries problems. Alexander Semin's ankle is hurt again (or is it 'still'?), Chris Clark is day-to-day with a groin injury and it looks like Boyd Gordon is likely going to miss a significant portion of time. To fill the roster spot the Capitals have recalled Quintin Laing from Hershey. The lines for tonight's game in Carolina will reportedly look like:

Ovechkin/Nylander/Kozlov
Fleischmann/Backstrom/Semin
Pettinger/Steckel/Laing
Brashear/Laich/Bradley

Which is actually not too bad, all things considered.

But back to the issue at hand - are the Capitals cursed? To anyone who has watched the team this year it seems like a legitimate question, possibly even a rhetorical one. Ever since those first three games the Capitals have been victim to bad calls (especially at inopportune times), bad bounces and, most of all, injury woes, seeing Clark, Semin and Tom Poti all miss time concurrently.

Clark missed games from October 27th to November 10th; Poti missed games from October 26th to November 5th; hence to two of them were both out five games, which included two one-goal losses and one two-goal loss. In the game only Poti missed, the Capitals also lost by one goal; the the game only Clark missed the Capitals lost another one goal game. In addition Alexander Semin was either hurt or ineffective due to his injury for each game in that stretch.

From October 26th to November 10th, the Capitals lost four one goal games, and one two goal game. You have to believe that having at least two of the three of Clark, Poti and Semin available and helthy for those games would have let the Capitals pull out at least four, if not more, points (they did manage one, losing in overtime in Atlanta). If the Capitals had managed a decent showing in those five games, picking up five points, they'd be sitting at 22 right now, tired for 12th in the Conference and only four out of the last playoff spot. Not overwhelming, but a much more feasible take than what they do currently have in front of them.

There there is of course the issue of the Capitals simply not being able to catch a break which, obviously, there is much less analytical evidence for.

Partially as a result of the late-October through early-November stretch the Capitals have lost their confidence. For the most part I don't think that they've lost confidence in their own ability or of the abilities of their teammates but they do seem to be convinced that the odds are stacked against them every night; that one bad turnover, one bad bounce, one referee's mistakes is going to bury the team and that as a result they have to play near perfectly to overcome the fact that fortune is not smiling on them. You can see it in the team's body language after the first goal of every game. If the Caps get it they look enthused, encouraged, like they're thinking "This could be our night, but even if it's not we've got a head start". If the opposition scores first the Caps body language is "Damn it, now we're in a hole and it's going to take a miracle for us to get out of it the way things are going".

So, how does the team get out of this mindset and out of the string of bad luck? Well the most common answer would probably be: win. There is of course a certain validity to that. Winning will give the team confidence and hopefully build momentum. But in my opinion that is not enough. The Capitals needs to win a couple games that they don't deserve to win, or at least win some close games handily because they got some good luck, in order to boost the team confidence that what is beyond their control isn't going to bury them on a regular basis. If the Caps start believing that, they will be able to weather adversity better and should start pulling off wins in game they fall behind or are outplayed early.

Eventually the bounces and the 50/50 calls are going to start going the Capitals way and if this team is playing reasonably well when they do they will be able to go on a run and make up significant ground in the standings. What the team needs to be able to do is hold its head above water in the standings (so they aren't in an impossible hole to get themselves out of) and keep playing well on the ice (so they can take advantage of the good luck and wins games when it finally comes around).

-DMG

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